Yesterday, I told you, "This whole tariff drama could end in an instant—with a tweet, a congressional move, or a court ruling."
Okay, not a tweet—a Truth Social post. That’s where President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the elevated tariffs that had kicked in only 13 hours earlier. The baseline 10% tariff is back in place for most countries, which, relatively speaking, is a relief.
The market took off on the news—and I mean took off.
I mentioned yesterday that I don’t react to every market twist and turn, but with the S&P 500 index jumping 9.5% yesterday—its third-strongest single-day return since its 1957 inception—I wanted to offer a few reflections.
The Trouble With Timing
First, this reinforces an important point: the market’s biggest rallies often sit right next to its biggest down days. As you’ll see below, some of the wildest swings—gains and losses—came during turbulent stretches like the COVID panic in March 2020 or the 2008–2009 financial crisis.
This time is no different. With tariffs coming and going, sharp moves in both directions have come in quick succession. Just last week, the S&P 500 index fell 4.8% and 6.0% on consecutive days. (Friday’s 6.0% drop ranks as the 19th-worst single-day decline in the index’s nearly 70-year history.)